National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1146am EDT Thu May 23 2024
Synopsis
A cold front will approach today before crossing the area this evening. The front will stall to our south on Friday before lifting back north on Saturday as a warm front. Another cold front moves through on Sunday, with a stronger system impacting the area on Monday into Tuesday. High pressure returns on Wednesday.
Near Term - Through Tonight
As of 1140 AM, the organized area of thunderstorms has moved well northeast of our area. The air mass has become more stable now in the wake of that convection. Some showers however are making their way northeastward from the Baltimore area. A few thunderstorms may also develop ahead of this where the air mass was not really overturned from the earlier convection. Adjusted the Probability of Precipitation quite a bit based on radar trends and guidance, delaying a thunder mention for much of the area for a while.
Several reports of wind damage in portions of the Lehigh Valley with an intense storm. The damage looks like it was produced by severe straight-line winds (downbursts/microbursts). Another severe downburst/microburst looked to have occurred earlier in portions of Sussex County, NJ.
Otherwise, as the front arrives and bisects the region, it will become quasi-stationary near and just south of the I-95 corridor and gradually sag southward through the afternoon and evening. At this time, another mid level shortwave shifts overhead to provide some additional forcing along this front. Some high-res guidance depicts a second round of scattered showers and thunderstorms developing and riding along the front. Depending on how worked over the environment will be after the morning cluster of storms and where any residual outflow boundaries set up, we could see some strong to marginally severe thunderstorms across the Delmarva and southern NJ with this second round. Locally damaging winds will be the main hazard throughout the day, especially where storms are able to become more organized such as in a cluster or a line segment.
Any showers and thunderstorms are expected to be weakening and/or moving offshore tonight as the cold front shifts to our east, though portions of southern NJ and the Delmarva could see scattered showers linger through daybreak early Friday morning. Further north and west, drier air will gradually filter in throughout the overnight period. Patchy fog cannot be ruled out, especially where rain occurs and if the cloud cover clears enough.
Short Term - Friday Through Saturday Night
Friday continues to look like a pleasant day with warming temperatures into the mid 80s with 70s along the shore due to the sea breeze. A cold front will move offshore and stall south of the area on Friday. A few residual showers may linger along the shore in the morning but for the most part all precipitation should be over. Skies will clear behind the front as dewpoints fall back into the 50s. The pleasant and quiet weather will continue into Friday night with clear skies and light winds. We should be able to radiate pretty well initially leading to some patchy fog development over DelMarVa where the heaviest rain is forecast to fall on Thursday. Clouds will increase from south to north later in the night which should limit the amount of cooling late, and thus the expansion of fog across the northern portions of the forecast area.
For Saturday, the stalled boundary to our south will begin to lift back northward across the area as a warm front with the main low pressure system tracking across the Great Lakes. Early morning on Saturday likely stays dry however, as we progress through the afternoon, the chance for showers and thunderstorms increase from west to east. For locations along the shore, precipitation may hold off entirely until Saturday evening, although it will be pretty cloudy most of the day. This system will be a rather quick mover so while Saturday night does appear to be wet, all precipitation should come to an end by early Sunday. Aided by warm air advection, highs on Saturday should reach again into the low to mid 80s despite cloud cover with cooler temps along the coast. Saturday night lows will be in the mid 50s to low 60s.
Long Term - Sunday Through Wednesday
After precipitation wanes on Sunday morning, a weak cold front will pass through the area, however the front will be slowing down and stalling either over or again just south of the area. Sunday for now does appear to be mostly dry behind the front with partial sunshine. Beyond Sunday, the weather pattern becomes unsettled as a stronger low pressure system develops back over the central CONUS. Strong PVA will move over the region Monday with stronger cold front crossing the area Monday night into Tuesday. This will lead to widespread shower activity across the region. WPC has included a Slight risk for Excessive Rainfall, and CIPS analog guidance is highlighting the potential for severe weather with between a 15-30% chance of severe weather across PA and 10-15% chance for DelMarVA and NJ. Will continue to monitor and focus attention on this time period of Monday afternoon through Tuesday. After the cold front passes, unsettled weather continues to be the theme thanks to several waves/impulses aloft passing through the week.
Temps for the workweek should be fairly seasonable with highs in the low to mid 80s Sunday followed more seasonable 70s through the week. Lows should be falling into the 60s each night.
Marine
The conditions are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through Thursday night, however a few gusty thunderstorms will be possible especially Thursday afternoon and evening.
Outlook... Friday through Monday
No marine headlines expected. Winds will periodically gust up to 15-20 kt with seas around 2-4 feet. A chance for showers and thunderstorms is expected on Saturday night and for Sunday night into Monday.
Rip Currents... S to SW winds will average 5 to 10 mph today along with breaking waves around 2 feet. There is a LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip currents at NJ and DE beaches for today. However, some showers and thunderstorms will be around.
On Friday, winds will once again be out of the S to SW at 5 to 10 mph with breaking waves of 1 to 2 feet. There is a LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip currents at NJ and DE beaches. Although there is a slight chance for showers, thunderstorms are not expected.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
Astronomical tides will be elevated this week with a Full Moon occurring today, May 23. Spotty minor coastal flooding will be possible, especially for the back bays, around the times of the evening high tide cycle, which will be the higher of the two tide cycles, going into the end of this week.
NOAA Mount Holly NJ Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None.
Marine
None.
